What happened.
German Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, head of the Bundeswehr’s operational command, warned that Russia could launch a limited attack on NATO territory “as soon as tomorrow.” Speaking to Reuters, the senior military official said Russia’s current level of armament already allows for small-scale tactical operations, while a large-scale offensive could be possible by 2029. Sollfrank based his assessment on the state of Russia’s armed forces, noting that despite heavy losses in Ukraine, its air force remains largely intact and the number of operational tanks is still significant.
Why it matters.
According to Sollfrank, the behavior of Western countries will be decisive in preventing escalation. Russia, he explained, employs hybrid attacks — including cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and covert actions — to “create uncertainty, spread fear, cause damage, conduct espionage, and test responses.” The general described this as “a war with fear,” a tactic developed over nearly two decades as part of Moscow’s long-term effort to reshape Europe’s security architecture.
What’s next.
Sollfrank emphasized that NATO must set “clear red lines” and strengthen deterrence through readiness and rapid response capabilities. He warned that Russia intends to expand its forces to 1.5 million troops and continues its rearmament despite massive human and economic losses in Ukraine. For NATO, the immediate priority will be reinforcing collective defense in Eastern Europe and accelerating joint military exercises to ensure credibility in the face of any potential aggression.
