The U.S. inflation figure arrives under suspicion because the government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 cut off the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from its usual price collection. In a rare exception, the BLS was authorized to call back part of its staff to publish the September CPI on October 24, which is needed to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA); but beyond that report, the flow of indicators remains interrupted and no new price information has been gathered since the shutdown began, which raises the risk of statistical “noise” and temporary biases in the next readings.
Market sensitivity is not trivial: the Social Security Administration confirmed it will take the September CPI published on October 24 to set and announce the 2026 COLA that same day, so there will be no delay in its effective date of January 1, 2026; however, the quality of the October measurement (released in November) could suffer due to reduced price coverage, and any bias—for example, capturing more end-of-month quotes—can exaggerate the monthly average and then correct the following month, complicating the trend reading.
History suggests caution: during the 2013 shutdown, the BLS reported delays and lower response rates in its surveys, with subsequent estimates subject to revisions; more recent audits also document that CPI response rates deteriorate under operational constraints. In the coming days, the key is to separate signal from noise. If the shutdown persists, the lack of timely collection may affect not only the CPI but also the PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) through lags and stitched sources.,
which would make the interpretation of disinflation—and, by extension, the rate path—more volatile; this comes just as businesses and households are already showing greater uncertainty and some small-business activity indicators have cooled. In short: the market should read the September figure—published due to legal requirements—but take the October numbers, and possibly November’s, with a grain of salt until normal collection resumes and a more representative statistical base is restored.
