The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% (from 3.0%) and projects 3.1% for 2026. Even so, it warns the outlook remains fragile: disinflation is advancing at uneven speeds, productivity is recovering slowly, and trade is still under pressure from geopolitical fragmentation and non-tariff barriers.
In advanced economies, growth would hover around 1.5%. The United States is expected to cool after a resilient spell for jobs and consumption; the euro area should improve gradually as inflation eases and financial conditions become less restrictive; and Japan is adjusting policy and wages amid a shifting monetary regime.
Among emerging markets, growth “above 4%” would continue to be led by Asia—with China combining targeted stimulus and adjustments in the property sector—while Latin America and emerging Europe will depend more on terms of trade, investment, and domestic confidence.
Near-term risks include renewed volatility in energy and food prices, extreme climate events, sovereign-debt strains in countries facing costly financing, and corrections in AI-linked assets if lofty expectations don’t materialize.
The IMF therefore recommends maintaining prudent monetary policy (rate cuts only once disinflation is firmly established), rebuilding fiscal buffers with credible rules and better-targeted spending, and accelerating reforms to boost private investment (infrastructure, digitalization, human capital).
It also urges using the window opened by lower inflation to repair public finances, improve the design of subsidies, expand well-targeted safety nets, and facilitate labor reallocation. The goal is to sustain a soft landing and turn the recovery into more inclusive and sustainable growth.
